【作者】 徐耀群； 张磊；

【Author】 Xu Yaoqun, Zhang Lei(Harbin University of Commerce, Harbin 150028,China)

【机构】 哈尔滨商业大学系统工程研究所； 哈尔滨商业大学工商管理学院；

【摘要】 管理创新对经济增长有着重要意义,其核心问题是决策问题。现实经济中存在不确定性,决策的影响因素因此而复杂、决策风险突出,而决策过程实际上是创新者的主观意志和客观环境条件的统一过程,因此传统的收益最大化决策方法已不能用于现代决策过程,迫切需要把科学的方法引入决策过程,形成科学的、能定量分析的决策理论和方法,帮助创新者寻求风险较小、效用较大的决策方案。本文运用期望效用理论,结合生产预测模型,建立了一个管理创新的决策模型,为管理决策的定量分析提供了科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Managerial innovation plays an important role in economic growth, the centerpiece is decision-making. In real economic life, however, there exist uncertainties which make factors related to decision-making complicated and lead to great risks. Decision-making process is a combination of personal intents with objective conditions, traditional decision-making based on revenue maximization is out of moded for modern decision-making, which presents an urgent need to introduce scientific approach into decision-making process and forms a scientific and quantitative decision-making method and theory,thus help innovator find a decision-making option with minimum risk and maximum utility. This article uses the theory of expected utility with production predicting model,and constructs a decision-making model of managerial innovation, thus provides scientific basis for quantitative analysis of managerial decision-making.更多还原