【作者】 马其芳； 黄贤金；

【机构】 南京大学城市与资源学系；

【摘要】 本文以江苏省为例,讨论了快速城市化区域耕地变化对粮食安全的影响研究。依据1970～2003年江苏省统计数据,概述了江苏省耕地资源利用及其粮食生产状况,并结合研究区不同经济发展时期人口、耕地的变化,将江苏省粮食产量的发展分为五个阶段:1970～1977年,粮食产量处于缓慢增长期;1978～1984年,粮食产量在该阶段快速增长;1985～1991年,粮食产量处于缓慢减少阶段;1992～1997年,粮食产量处于缓慢增产阶段;1998～2003年,粮食产量处于快速减少时期。通过建立江苏省耕地变化的驱动模型进行驱动机制分析发现:随着经济的快速发展以及城市化进程的加快导致耕地面积呈现减少的趋势;第三产业比重的提高和家庭联产承包责任制的实施,对于耕地面积的增加是有促进作用的;粮食产量的增加的根本动力在于技术的进步;现行耕地保护政策不能有效地保护耕地资源。同时,进行了江苏省粮食安全分析,计算了在安全系数为0.925条件下,2004～2030年江苏省应保持的粮食作物安全播种面积,并设计耕地在不同年均递减幅度下,江苏省出现粮食危机的时间预测。最后,提出为保障江苏省耕地总量动态平衡和粮食安全,需通过科技进步提高粮食单产,大力推广实施土地整理,通过农地流转来实现规模经营,实施严格的耕地保护政策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The article discussed the effect of cultivated land change to provision security in the area of high-speed urbanization. Based on statistics data from 1970 to 2003 of Jiangsu Province, the paper summarized the status on cultivated land resources and provision production. In terms of population and cultivated land change in different economic situation, provision production can be divided into five stages. From 1970 to 1977, provision output increased slowly. The output developed fast from 1978 to 1984. From 1985 to 1991, the output reduced slowly. The output increased slowly next six years. From 1998 to 2003, output of provision was in quickly decreased period. A driving model of regional cultivated land use change has been established. The result shows that the main reason of cultivated land reducing is high-speed economic progress and urbanization. It is useful to increasing cultivated land area by promoting the proportion of the third industry and family production system. The main reason of increasing cultivated land area is technique progress. The present policy about protection of cultivated land is of no obvious effect. By analysis on provision security of Jiangsu Province, it concluded the safe area for crop planting from 2004 to 2030. And the provision crisis time was predicted. Finally, the paper gives several suggestions to protect cultivated land and provision safety, such as technology progress, land settlement, scale management.更多还原