【摘要】 选择与建设用地相关性大的GDP、财政支出和全社会固定资产投资三项指标为自变量,以年建设用地为因变量,采用新型优化组合算法,基于单变量拟合方程对建设用地增量的精度贡献,构建多元非线性组合模型,预测深圳市2006年、2007年新增建设用地量分别为39.21km2、36.32km2。分析发现,在三项指标中财政支出指标对建设用地增量预测贡献度最大,其次为GDP,最后是固定资产投资。更多还原

【Abstract】 GDP,financial expenditure and total investment in fixed assets were selected as independent variable,and construction land area was selected as dependent variable.An improved optimum combination forecasting method were used to produce a multi-parameter nonlinear model.This method calculated the value of each coefficient based on the precision contribution of the single variable simulation model to the predicted increments of construction land area.Construction land demand of Shenzhen City were forecasted then with satisfactory results.更多还原