【摘要】 利用EOF和环流合成统计方法,分析了我国北方近40年来沙尘暴日数变化的时空异常特征及其气候成因.结果表明,20世纪80年代以来的太阳活动加强,全球气候变暖,青藏高原地面加热场强度加强,欧亚西风急流轴北移,西太平洋副热带高压偏北偏西,强度加强,蒙古气旋减弱,西北西部的沙尘源区降水增加,是中国北方沙尘暴减少的主要原因.20世纪末到21世纪初太阳活动进入新一轮的减弱期,引起气候变暖趋势减弱,气温逐渐降低,青藏高原地面加热场强度减弱,蒙古气旋逐渐加强.预计未来中国北方沙尘暴将在波动中逐渐增加,进入新一轮的相对活跃期.更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent 40 years in Northern China the space-time abnormity characteristics and its climatic formation cause of sand-dust storm days number change were analyzed utilizing EOF and circumfluence synthesis statistic method. Since the beginning of 1980′s, the solar activity was strengthened, the global climate became warmer, the intension of the surface heat field in Tibetan plateau was strengthened, the west breeze rushing axis of Eurasia moved towards north, the subtropical high pressure of the west Pacific Ocean was more northwest and intension was strengthened, Mongolia cyclone became weaker, the precipitation in the dust source region increased in the northern west China, all above were the main causes of sand-dust storm reduced in the northern China. From the end of 20th century to the beginning of 21st, the solar activity began a new round of weak period, which induced the weakening of the climate warm trend , the gradual lowering of air temperature, the weakening of intension of the surface heat field in Tibetan plateau, the gradual strengthening of Mongolia cyclone. The Chinese northern sand-dust storm was forecasted to increase gradually in waves, entering into a new round of relatively active period.更多还原