【摘要】 运用甘肃省天水、西峰两地1951—2005年的气温资料及天水、西峰农业气象试验站1981—2003年冬小麦物候观测资料,分析探讨了甘肃冬小麦种植区50多年的冬季气温变暖趋势及冬小麦生长发育过程对气候变暖的响应.结果表明:冬季气温升高对冬小麦生长发育产生了较大影响.在最近20多年,冬小麦越冬死亡率下降到2%以下,越冬天数减少了7～8d,整个生育期缩短8～10d,返青-开花期天数延长7d,这有利于冬小麦生产及气候资源的利用.同时,冬季气温升高及降水减少也使冬小麦产量稳定性变差,麦田病、虫危害发生率增加,给冬小麦的安全生产增加了不确定因素.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the observation data of the air temperature at Tianshui and Xifeng in 1951-2005 and of the phenology of winter wheat at Tianshui and Xifeng in 1981-2003, the tendency of winter warming in past 50 years and the responses of winter wheat growth to climate warming in Gansu Province were analyzed. The results showed that the growth and development of winter wheat were seriously influenced by winter warming. In recent 20 years or more, the overwintering mortality of winter wheat dropped to <2%, overwintering days reduced by 7-8 days, whole growth period shorted by 8-10 days, and jointing-flowering period extended by 7 days, which would benefit the production of winter wheat and the utilization of climatic resource. However, the higher winter temperature and lesser precipitation also made the grain yield instable and the plant diseases and insect pests more frequent, resulting in more uncertain factors in winter wheat safe production.更多还原