【摘要】 元胞自动机模型具有较强的模拟空间复杂系统时空演变的能力,可以进行有效的城市增长和土地利用演化方面的模拟,现已成为城市地理学研究的重要工具。SLEUTH模型是元胞自动机模型的一种具体实现,它包含了四种城市增长方式和五个增长系数,再加上两个控制因素层一起作用于输入数据,能够较好地模拟城市的扩展。本文详细介绍了SLEUTH模型的校正和运行过程,并修改控制参数将其应用于北京城市扩展的模拟和预测中,通过分析模型的运行结果,深入地研究了北京城市发展的模式和成因,同时也指出了模型存在的问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 Cellular automata models(CA) have strong abilities to simulate the temporal-spatial evolvement of the complicated spatial system,and it can effectively model the expansion of cities and the land-use change.Nowadays cellular automata models have become the important methods for geographical researches.SLEUTH model is a kind of CA,it is composed by four growth rules and five coefficients,in conjunction with the excluded layer and the slope layer,it can successfully model the urbanization.This paper introduced the calibration and the function of SLEUTH in detail,used it to simulate and predict Beijing urbanization,then studied the pattern and reasons of Beijing urbanization,pointed out the limitation of the model by analyzing the results of the model.更多还原