【摘要】 研究子公司在当前总公司不同政策情况下,未来政策不确定性对企业投资临界值的影响,将企业集团内子公司新技术产品未来的需求描述为混合布朗运动/泊松跳跃过程,并用泊松跳跃过程描述政策的转换过程.通过建立模型以及模型模拟数值解,得出了特定情况下子公司投资的临界值,并考察了因总公司的不支持政策对子公司投资造成的阻碍程度对企业决策临界值的影响,进一步分析了决策临界值对政策的不确定性概率的依赖程度以及在存在突变因素的情况下企业的决策.更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the assumptions that the demand of subsidiary company’s new technology commodities follows a mixed Brownian motion/Poisson jump process and the policies’ change follows a Poisson jump process,the impact of the uncertainty of parent company’s future policies on subsidiary company’s investment decisions is investigated.By certain numerical illustration based on a model,our research gives the optimal entry thresholds under different present policies,and analyzes the relationship between these thresholds and the added costs’ degree which comes from the unsupported of parent company.Further,the dependence of these thresholds on the probability of uncertainty and the effects of factors which Lead to demand’s Jump Process on Firms’ Decisions are studied.更多还原