【摘要】 技术创新是企业参与市场竞争的重要方式,然而溢出效应的存在却是无法避免的。利用实物期权和博弈论的方法,可以对存在溢出效应情况的企业R&D行为进行建模,并反映溢出效应对企业R&D行为的影响。模拟的结果表明,R&D项目的溢出效应与竞争对手的模仿能力,都将降低R&D项目价值及其成功的概率。研发过程和市场需求的不确定性,都将提高R&D项目的价值。然而,前者会提高项目研发成功的概率,后者则会阻碍项目研发的成功。更多还原

【Abstract】 Technological innovations are important means of competition for enterprises in the market,but spillover effects are inevitable.It is suggested that real option method and game theory can be used to model corporate R&D behaviors with spillover effects,and the model will reflect the impact of spillover effects on corporate R&D behaviors.The results of our simulation show that both spillover effects of R&D projects and imitation abilities of rivals will reduce the value and success probability of R&D projects.In addition,R&D process and uncertainty of market demand will enhance the value of R&D projects,though the former may increase the success probability of R&D projects while the latter may reduce it.更多还原