【摘要】 本文依据1980年1月至2006年10月我国社会消费品零售额的月度数据资料进行建模。结果表明:SARIMA(2,1,2)×(0,1,0)12+ARCH(2)模型能够提供较为准确的预测结果,从而为我国社会消费品的销售提供比较可靠的依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the nearly 322 monthly data of gross social consumption in China from January,1980 to October,2006,this paper carries on modeling.The result shows that the SARIMA(2,1,2)×(0,1,0)12+ARCH(2) model can provide relatively accurate results.Using this model,this paper forecasts the data in the future,and also provides the reliable basis for gross social consumption in our country.更多还原