【摘要】 以黄河源区为研究对象,以分布式水文模型SWAT为研究工具,建立不同气候波动和土地覆盖变化情景,模拟和预测未来水资源的变化。针对黄河源区特殊的下垫面条件,着重冰雪和冻土的水文过程调试,对模拟结果的评价显示,SWAT模型能够较好地模拟黄河源区的水资源变化。不同情景下演算得出的水资源量数据可信,具有一定的实用意义,随着认识的深入和模型结构以及参数的优化,模型在寒区水资源研究和管理中会发挥更大作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Taking Yellow River Source Region as a study area,this paper simulated and estimated the runoff processes under the different climate and land cover change scenarios using distributed hydrological model—SWAT.Owing to the particular convergence condition in YRSR,the model calibration intensified the parameters on snowmelt and soil temperature.The evaluation of the results showed that SWAT simulated the hydrological process comparatively well.The runoff estimting results under different scenarios are believable and useful in practice to some extent and SWAT will play a more important role in the cold region water resources research and management with more edfining the structure and parameters of the model.更多还原