【摘要】 利用1949~2003年的统计资料,分析了近55年来汕头市耕地面积变化的总体趋势、空间差异和驱动因子。应用GIS进行空间分析,通过建立多元回归模型,对汕头市2010年、2015年和2020年的耕地数量进行了初步预测。分析结果表明:汕头市耕地总面积、人均耕地面积呈明显递减态势,经济发展、人口压力、农业产业结构调整和农业科技进步4类因素是影响耕地数量变化的4个主成分,其结果将为进一步研究粤东北潮汕平原耕地变化提供借鉴,为合理利用和保护耕地、促进区域可持续发展提供科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the statistical and survey data of the year of 1949 to 2003,the overall tendency,spatial differences and driving forces of the cultivated land change of Shantou City from the year of 1949 are discussed.The results of analysis can be found as follows.Firstly,the total area of cultivated land and the per capita cultivated land are reducing.Secondly,taking advantage of the formula of the relative change index and in support of the technology of GIS aided spatial analysis,the relative change index of the cultivated land of the partial regions in Shantou City can be indicated in the map, from which the spatial distribution of the changing area of cultivated land can be seen and compared very clearly.Thirdly,with the method of principal component analysis,eleven driving forces which play an important role in the changing of the cultivated land are classified into four types,which are the development of economy,the pressure of population,the adjustments of agricultural structure and the improvement of agricultural technology.All these analytical results and conclusions will be beneficial to providing theoretical and practical guide for the variation and protection of cultivated land,and scientific basis for sustainable development of Shantou City.更多还原