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基于二维正态分布的条件VaR研究

Conditional VaR Based on Two-Dimensional Normal Distribution

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【作者】 肖春来柴文义刘喜波

【Author】 XIAO Chun-lai1,CHAI Wen-yi2,LIU Xi-bo1(1.North China University of Technology,College of Science,Beijing 100041,China)(2.Renmin University of China,School of Statistic,Beijing 100872,China)

【机构】 北方工业大学理学院中国人民大学统计学院北方工业大学理学院 北京100041北京100872北京100041

【摘要】 基于条件收益率的VaR测算方法.在假定股票价格对数与收益率服从二维正态分布的基础上,对每一价格水平,得到条件收益率的分布特征,进而计算条件VaR值.通过分析证明了条件收益率分布与价格水平高低有关,一般价格升高会使条件收益率分布向左侧移动,反之向右侧平移.

【Abstract】 We research the method of VaR basedon the conditional revenue ratio in this paper.On the base of assuming logarithm of stock price and its revenue ratio obey two-dimension normal distribution,we get the statistical distribution characteristic of the conditional revenue ratio under each price level,and then calculate condition VaR.The research proves that the conditional revenue ratio has relation with the different price level,and the distribution of conditional revenue ratio will move towards the left with the price going up,otherwise towards the right.

  • 【文献出处】 数学的实践与认识 ,Mathematics in Practice and Theory , 编辑部邮箱 ,2007年09期
  • 【分类号】O211.3
  • 【被引频次】11
  • 【下载频次】309
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