【摘要】 财政风险预警系统的科学建立主要取决于风险预警指标的正确选取。由于财政风险受经济、体制、收支、赤字及债务等多种风险因素的影响,而每一种风险因素又可由不同的指标来揭示,因此其预警指标具有结构性和层次性。在将预警指标划分为三个层次即总体指标、结构指标和分析指标的基础上,通过全面考察分析并赋予结构指标以不同的权重,得出我国直接显性财政风险的总体指标,并由此发现当前我国的直接显性财政风险有总体下降的趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 A scientific founding of fiscal risks warning system lies in a correct selection of the warning index.Because fiscal risks are subject to economic,system,revenue and expenditure,deficit and debt risk factors,and each of these factors can be revealed by different indexes,warning indexes have the characteristics of structure and layer.We group the warning index into three levels:general index,structural index and analytical index.After a comprehensive analysis,we calculate the general index of direct and explicit fiscal risks and conclude that there is a general falling tendency in current China′s direct ad explicit fiscal risks.更多还原