【摘要】 以两次人口普查数据为基础,利用单核心和多核心人口分布模型模拟了上海1990年代的人口分布模型。(1)单核心人口密度模型能够较好地描述1990年代上海人口分布。Clark模型在拟合1990年的城市中心区和2000年的城市中心区以及中心近郊区时占优。Smeed模型在拟合包括郊区的全市地域范围的人口分布时占优。(2)多核心模型能够更好地描述上海的人口密度分布。1990年的模拟,上海有2个人口分布次中心,都分布在城市的核心区边缘区,多核心结构刚刚发育,城市核心对上海人口分布起主要作用,2000年模拟表明,上海有6个人口分布次中心,分布在中心区和近郊区,各个次中心对人口分布都有重要影响,多核心结构已经发育较为成熟。2000年上海人口扩散的距离较1990年远。(3)随着上海城市经济的发展和人口分布的变动,上海人口空间结构已经从简单的单核心结构变为复杂的多核心结构。由于上海城市郊区的发展,城市郊区和原城市核心区一起组成了新的城市核心区。上海人口空间结构变化日趋复杂化。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using the Census data of 1990 and 2000 of Shanghai,this article analysized the population distribution and models the population density function of Shanghai.The conclusion are followings:(1) Based on the regression of monocentric model ,the author find that the monocentric model can provide a good description of Shanghai population distribution.The Clark model is better when modeling for central districts and Smeed model for whole urban area.(2) The polycentric model can give a better description of Shanghai′s population distribution,in 1990 there were two subcenters and the CBD matters the Shanghai population distribution;in 2000 there were six subcenters and the subcenters plays important role.(3)With the development of Shanghai economic and change of population distribution,the spatial structure of Shaghai population becomes complicated with monocentric to polycentric.The changes of parameters of models show that a new city core area is constituted by the old suburb and central districts due to the development of suburb and population suburbanization.更多还原