【摘要】 目的研究重庆市1951-2001年疟疾发病的动态规律。方法运用SPSS 12.0统计软件,利用时间序列模型建立人口数的二次预测模型和年新发病例数的对数曲线模型来分析预测疟疾的发病数及发病率。结果重庆市人口数的二次曲线模型和疟疾新发病例的对数曲线模型能够对重庆市人口数和疟疾新发病例数进行预测,2002年重庆市人口数预测范围为3113112～3368928人,新发病例数范围为126～134例;分别与实际的人口数(31309038人)和病例数(130例)基本吻合。结论运用人口数的二次曲线模型和疟疾新发病例的对数曲线模型能够较好的预测疟疾发病数和发病率,总体来看重庆市疟疾动态的总趋势是持续下降的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To study on the dynamic patent of the malaria outbreak in Chongqing municipal from 1951 to 2001.Method The quadratic forecast model of population and logarithmic curve model of new case were established using the time series models.The malaria cases and incidence rate were analyzed and predicted by using these models.Result The population and new case of malaria can be predicted by the quadratic forecast model of population and logarithmic curve model of new case in Chongqing municipal.The prediction range of population is from 3113112 to 3368928,and the range of the new cases rate of incidence of malaria is from 126 to 134 in 2002 year.These two numbers are consistent with actual number of population and new cases,which are 31309038 and 130,respectively.Conclusion The numbers of new cases and the rate of incidence of malaria can be predicted by the quadratic forecast model of population and the logarithmic curve model of new cases.The general trend of malaria are gradually decreasing in Chongqing municipal.更多还原