【摘要】 本文通过对6—7月份100 hPa南亚高压形态变化规律特征的描述和有关天气系统间的响应变化分析,总结了南亚高压进退振荡周期和南亚高压与副热带高压的响应关系,并进一步论证了南亚高压与江淮梅雨关系。根据所得结论对历史资料进行了反查验证。提出了有一定应用价值的代表性结论:(1)6—7月南亚高压东伸指数和南亚高压脊线变化呈波动状周期性北跳东进,其变化周期均在10—12 d左右,南亚高压开始北跳东进的时间、维持长度决定了我国东部梅雨始期和梅期长短,并具有很好的对应关系。(2)根据南亚高压脊线和副高脊线的线性关系,可采用110～120°E的平均南亚高压脊线位置≥28～30°N作为入梅的指标之一,利用110～120°E的平均南亚高压脊线位置≥32～35°N作为出梅的指标之一。这些结论的提出具有一定的理论意义,特别是利用南亚高压进行入、出梅的判别丰富了梅雨领域的研究,同时这些结论为中长期天气预报提供了新的思路和参考指标。更多还原

【Abstract】 Through describing change rule of South Asia High and analyzing response variation of other weather system,the response relations between South Asia High and Subtropical High and Oscillation cycle of South Asia High are summarized in the paper.At the same time,the relation between South Asia High and plum rain is expounded.These results are proved in historical data.Some representative conclusions with wide applications are put forward:(1) In June and July,the eastward advance index and ridge line of South Asia High emerge periodical northward jumping and eastward advancing.The change cycle is about 10-12 days.The starting date and persistent time of northward jumps and eastward advances affect beginning date and holding time of plum rain.The response relation is remarkable.(2) According to the line relation of South Asia High ridge and subtropical High ridge,the one of entering plum rain index is that the South Asia High ridge average is located more than 29-30 °N,and the outing plum rain index is that the South Asia High ridge average is more than 32-35 °N between 110 °E and 120 °E.These results can be considered to be theoretically significant and help further study in plum rain field.On the other hand,these results provide new thinking ways and reference index in mid-long period weather forecast field.更多还原