【摘要】 利用MM5模式对云南两个具有代表性的强降水过程进行高分辨率模拟,通过下垫面植被的敏感性试验,考察云南气候要素(降水、温度、湿度、风等)对下垫面植被状况的敏感性,从而达到了解自然环境及人类活动在云南天气、气候及气候变化中的作用与影响,以期提高对未来天气、气候变化、环境变化及其对人类社会发展影响的预测和评估能力。试验结果表明,下垫面植被状况的改变对云南气候要素值的影响非常明显,这种影响一般在近地面至700 hPa之间;下垫面植被覆盖率的锐减,使云南降水范围、降水量、空气湿度急剧减小,温度、风力、蒸发能力、干旱指数迅速增大,加剧了云南的干旱化和沙漠化,最终将导致云南的天气气候和环境生态系统偏离本来的平衡状态和演变过程。但下垫面植被状况的改变对降水中心、冷(暖)中心、干(湿)中心位置影响不大。更多还原

【Abstract】 A high sensitivity experiment of two typical heavy rainfall of Yunnan Province is made by MM5 model.By sensitivity experiment of vegetative distribution,the sensitivity of Yunnan’s climatic elements was analysed.The effect and influence of natural environment and human activities on Yunnan’s weather and climate and Yunnan’s climatic change was found out,which can be expected to improve predictive and evaluating ability on climatic change,environment change and its influence on human society.The results indicate that the change of vegetative distribution has marked effect on Yunnan’s climatic elements and it mainly influence from surface to 700 hPa.If the vegetative distribution is obviously decreasing,so that the rainfall area,precipitation and air humidity will be sharply decreasing and temperature,wind force,evaporation power and drought index will rapidly increasing in Yunnan province.The evolvement of drought and desert in Yunnan province will be worse and worse so that Yunnan’s climate system and environment-ecosystem will depart from the inward balance state and their evolvement course.However the change of vegetative distribution has little effect on the center position of rainfall,warm and cold center position and dry and wet center position in Yunnan province.更多还原