【摘要】 利用全国565个台站1956-2005年冬季平均温度资料,将多年温度变化划分为偏暖、偏冷和正常三类等概率气候事件,由此给出了一个新的暖冬指数和暖冬的定义。结果表明:暖冬指数与中国冬季温度的变暖趋势相一致,并表现出显著的年代际变化特征,其变率分别为10%/10a和0.4℃/10a。近50a暖冬事件共计发生13次,其中近85%的暖冬发生在1986年以后。受年际尺度变化的影响,2004/2005年和2005/2006年暖冬主要发生在青藏高原和华南南部,而东北、内蒙古及中部大部分地区为冷冬或正常。更多还原

【Abstract】 A reasonable warmer winter index(IWWI)in the framework of the three equiprobability categories(i.e.warmer,normal and colder categories)is proposed based on the winter temperature data observed at 565 stations in China during 1956-2005,where the IWWI is defined as the ratio of the station number of warmer category over the total number of stations.The results suggest that the trend of IWWI was consistent with that of the winter temperature on decadal time scale,and their rates of change were 10%/10a and 0.4℃/10a,respectively.It is found that only 13 warmer winter events in total were detected by IWWI over the past 50 years,and 85% of them occurred after 1986.更多还原