【摘要】 对台风暴潮影响下的嵊泗海域人工鱼礁工程做了风险评估,考虑了台风暴潮中出现的大浪和风暴潮减水对鱼礁联合作用的危害。风险评估分为危险灾害识别、失效概率计算、失效后果评估、风险准则评定和风险管理决策几个主要的步骤。在失效概率的计算中采用基于应用设计点的重点抽样法随机模拟的技术,这一随机模拟技术可以广泛的应用与海洋工程结构的风险评估当中。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper focuses on the risk assessment of a new type of concrete artificial fish-reefs in Shengsi when typhoon waves with the lowest water level and maximum tidal current speed occur.The risk analysis is carried out by performing several basic processes,such as hazard identification,failure probability calculation,consequence estimation,risk criteria establishment,risk management and decision making.Stochastic Simulation technique based on the ISPUD(Importance Sampling Procedure Using Design Point) is used in the calculating of the failure probability.The Importance Sampling Procedure,which can reduce variance and enhance efficiency in calculating the failure probability of the fish-reef,can be widely used in the risk assessment of ocean engineering projects.更多还原