【摘要】 在Bayes可靠性评估中通常需要利用专家经验等先验信息,而可靠性工程专家习惯于将自己的意见用模糊信息来表达。普通Bayes分析方法不易处理这些模糊先验信息,针对这种情况提出了一种Bayes可靠性评估方法:首先基于试验数据诱导出可靠性参数的置信分布,并将该分布视为“先验分布”,将专家意见视为模糊观测数据,再根据Bayes公式进行统计推断。更多还原

【Abstract】 Prior information such as expert judgment is needed in Bayesian reliability estimation. General Bayesian method cannot deal with expert judgment when it is fuzzy. Under this circumstance, a new method was proposed. First a belief distribution was deduced from test data, and it was regarded as prior distribution. Then the expert judgment was taken as fuzzy observation, and reliability parameters were obtained via Bayesian theorem.更多还原