【摘要】 本文以我国1998年以来的货币政策操作实践为研究背景,对货币政策的经验研究前提——货币政策立场指示器问题进行了实证研究。研究表明,在对实际经济活动的预测能力方面,M1的增长率GM1最强,M2的增长率GM2次之,利率指标则较弱,所以GM1是我国货币政策立场的良好指示器。相应的政策含义是现阶段货币供给量作为中介目标还具有一定的合理性,建议货币当局尽快完善现有的货币统计框架以增强M2作为中介目标的适用性,同时货币政策操作应更加密切地关注M1指标。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper studies the monetary policy stance indicator positively on the background of the monetary policy operation practice of China since 1998.As far as the predictive power for real economic is concerned,GM1 is the best indicator and GM2 is more predictive than interest rates.So GM1 is a good indicator for monetary policy stance indicator of China.This means that it’s reasonable for money aggregate to serve as the intermediary target of monetary policy.Therefore,we suggest that the central bank should revise the statistics framework of money supply in order to improve the reasonableness of M2 for intermediary target.At the same time,the monetary operation of central bank should pay attention to the M1 indicator more closely.更多还原