【摘要】 针对传统故障树分析中存在的不确定性难于量化的问题,在D-S理论的基础上,运用区间分析理论,提出了故障树区间分析方法,构造了故障树区间算子。使用D-S理论中的似然函数和信任函数分别作为故障树分析中底事件发生故障的区间概率的上下界,采用区间分析理论,构造与门区间算子、或门区间算和表决门区间算子,进行故障树量化计算。实例证明这种方法是可行的。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is difficult to quantify the uncertainties existing in conventional fault tree analysis(FTA).Therefore we apply the interval analysis theory and propose our fault tree interval analysis method.We use the likelihood function and belief function in the D-S theory to calculate the upper boundary and lower boundary of the interval probability of fault occurrence in elementary events in FTA.We also apply the interval analysis theory to constructing the AND operator,OR operator and VOTING operator to quantify the fault trees.更多还原