【摘要】 "缩长"曾使国内外学者感到困惑。本文中我们将采用一个离散型动态模型来研究这一商业周期现象。我们发现当经济具有高增长的稳定状态时,一个过度的投资冲击将使"缩长"成为可能。这种解释符合中国的主要宏观经济变量在最近一段时间所体现出的序列波动。而稳定状态下的高增长则可以被中国目前的体制环境所解释。更多还原

【Abstract】 Deflationary expansion has puzzled economists both in and outside China.We study this business cycles phenomenon within a model of discrete time dynamics.We find that deflationary expansion could be possible if driven by an overshooting in investment and if the state of the economy maintains high rate of growth.This expression is consistent with the recent time series variation of some key macroeconomic variables.The high steady state of growth could be explained by the current institutional environment of China.更多还原