【摘要】 对新中国成立以来特别是改革开放以来我国城市体系的演化过程进行了实证分析,发现1949年以来我国城市数量和城市平均规模都处于明显的上升过程。改革开放以来,我国城市首位度以及城市规模对数对城市位序对数的回归系数总体上趋于降低,说明我国城市体系并不符合Zipf法则,同时也表明这一时期我国城市体系总体上呈扁平化发展趋势,但1996年以来这一趋势有所逆转。城市增长影响因素的分析结果显示,1990年以来大城市的增长速度要明显低于小城市,城市市场潜力、城市自然条件对城市增长速度有显著影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 By analyzing with evidence the evolution of Chinese urban system from 1949, especially from 1978, we find that the average size as well as the number of Chinese cities experiences consistent growth from 1949. Ever since 1978, the urban primacy index and the regression coefficient of city size logarithm on its rank logarithm have fallen as a whole, which shows that Chinese urban system does not fit the Zipf law. It also shows that Chinese urban system has a flat-forming tendency of development, but the tendency has reversed ever since 1996. The analysis of city growth factors indicates that big cities are obviously growing slower than small cities, and that the market potential and city natural conditions markedly influence the growth rate of cities.更多还原