【摘要】 产业技术的动态发展和企业之间的产品竞争影响企业新产品的引进策略,决定新产品的引进周期和产品质量。在产业技术动态不确定的条件下构建随机动态规划模型,基于产业技术进步和产品市场竞争的影响因素作用,探讨企业进行新产品引进的最优时间策略和最优产品质量选择,对新产品引进的周期和质量决策进行方法设计和应用举例。利用随机动态规划模型得出新产品引进的最优时间周期和产品质量,用算例分析技术进步和技术不确定性对企业引进周期策略的影响,采取策略迭代的方法进行求解,发现技术进步较快时企业的新产品引进步伐也较快,技术不确定使企业的新产品引入步伐加快、产品周期缩短,企业进行新产品开发需要更多的投资。更多还原

【Abstract】 Technology dynamic progress and product competition affect new product introduction decision,including introduction timing policy and quality choice.In stochastic dynamic program model,the paper studies optimal new product introduction timing policy under technology uncertainty and competition.The paper explores method to make decision of new product policy,analyzes the effect of technology progress and uncertainty on new product introduction policy.Iteration method is used to solve infinite-horizon Markov decision process.The paper found that the quicker technology progress,the shorter new product introduction period.Technology uncertainty speed up new product introduction.Much more investment is needed to launch new product under technology uncertainty.更多还原