【摘要】 利用NCEP的Reynolds最优插值海面温度产品(1981年12月-2004年10月),对南海海表温度场的年际变化与热带太平洋El Ni~no指数(Ni~no1+2,Ni~no3.4,Ni~no5和Ni~no6指数)以及印度洋的偶极子指数(DMI)进行相关性分析。研究表明南海海面温度(SST)的变异与Ni~no1+2指数的变异相关性较强,南海海表温度场平均滞后Ni~no1+2指数4.77个月时,二者相关达到最大,平均为0.60;Ni~no3.4指数次之,南海海洋表层温度距平(SSTA)平均滞后Ni~no3.4指数6.67个月时,二者相关系数最大,平均为0.49。南海海表温度场对应的伴随形态进一步表明,南海随Ni~no1+2,Ni~no3.4指数出现正异常并有增暖现象,其中南海SST异常随Ni~no1+2指数变化的强度更大。并且几乎整个南海区域均超过95%的置信水平,当Ni~no1+2达到1个标准差(即异常增暖1.04℃),南海平均增暖幅度为0.16℃,越南东南外海和南海16°N以北区域SSTA增幅最大为0.20℃。表征西北太平洋海表温度场的Ni~no5和Ni~no6指数对ENSO现象的响应与南海表层温度场线性相关性不显著。研究还表明,南海海表温度场的年际变化与印度洋偶极子指数(DMI)的相关性不强,相关性仅体现在南海的卡里曼丹岛西南角的局部海域。更多还原

【Abstract】 The monthly NCEP optimal interpolation sea surface temperature(SST) analysis product from December 1981 to October 2004 was used to make the correlation analysis of interannual variabilities in SST in the South China Sea(SCS) and the El Nio indices as well as the Indian Ocean dipole mode index(DMI).It is shown from the analysis results that the correlation coefficient between SST anomaly(SSTA) in SCS and Nio1+2 index reaches its maximum(averagely 0.6) with SSTA in SCS lagging behind Nio1+2 index by 4.77 months,and the correlation coefficient between SSTA in SCS and Nio3.4 reaches its maximum(averagely 0.49) with SSTA in SCS lagging behind Nio3.4 by 6.67 months.It is shown from the Nio indices-associated correlation patterns of SSTA in SCS that SCS became warmer when the positive anomalies of Nio1+2 and Nio3.4 indices occurred,the correlation between SSTA in SCS and Nio1+2 index is statistically significant at 95% confidence level,the warming trend is stronger,i.e.,the SCS becomes 0.16 ℃ warmer averagely with Nio1+2 index amomaly reaching 1 standard deviation(1.02 ℃),and the maximum anomaly exceeds 0.20 ℃.The response of Nio 5 and Nio 6 indicative of SST of the northwestern Pacific to ENSO events is not significantly related to SSTA in SCS,the correlation between the Indian Ocean DMI and the SSTA in SCS is also insignificant,and the correlation between the two is significant only in the sea area southwest of the Kalimantan Island.更多还原