【摘要】 基于国际油价长期趋势的研究表明,由于石油具有经济和政治双重属性,石油利益分配格局在形成之后一般会保持相对稳定,石油价格涨跌都是在这一既定的分配格局下实现的,以利益分配为基准在一定区间内上下浮动。在既定的浮动区间内,从总体上来看,油价的高低取决于市场博弈的结果。一旦突破这一理论边界,就意味着既有的分配格局被打破,表明国际格局和国家间关系发生了很大的变化。此时石油利益怎样重新分配,取决于国家实力和国际政治格局。所以,石油价格不可能长期呈现急剧上涨的趋势,短期内的波动在国际石油市场上是一种常态。更多还原

【Abstract】 Ctudy focusing on the long-term trend in international oil prices suggests that petroleum has both economic and political attributes. The division of political interests will form a pattern that will usually remain relatively stable once established. All oil prices fluctuate within a range based on this "division of interests" pattern. Within this range, oil price levels reflect the outcome of the market game. Once oil prices break through this theoretical boundary, it means that the old division of political interests has been broken by a great change in the international situation and relationship between countries. Then how are oil interests reallocated among countries? It depends on the relative strength of the countries and the overall international political situation. Therefore, oil prices are unlikely to continue skyrocketing in the long term and there will be frequent short-lived price fluctuations in the international oil market.更多还原