【摘要】 人口问题是一个国家或地区可持续发展的前提。人口规模是否合理,对一个国家或地区未来的经济、社会和生态环境可持续发展影响深远。本文运用马尔萨斯人口模型和Logistic增长模型,利用《甘肃年鉴》统计数据对甘肃省2005~2020年的人口发展规模做出预测,取马尔萨斯人口模型和Logistic增长模型的预测结果的平均值作为预测结果,并在预测的基础上对人口与水、耕地、矿产和能源的可持续发展进行了分析,提出了可持续发展的人口对策,为甘肃省科学地制定国民经济和社会发展战略、实现人口与资源环境的可持续发展提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The population is the sustainable development premise of a country or a region.whether the population scale is reasonable is very important to the sustainable development of economy,society and ecosystem environment in a country or a region.So the population prediction is one of the researches which have important social economic meaning.This research makes the prediction of the population development during 2005-2020 of Gansu province by using Malthus population model,Logistic increase model and the population data of Gansu Statistic Yearbook.The average values of the Malthus population model and Logistic increase model are regarded as the result of the prediction.The sustainable development of the population and water,farmland,mineral,energy are analyzed on the foundation of prediction.The population countermeasures are put forward for the sustainable development.It can offer the references for establishing the national economy and society development stratagem and realizing the sustainable development of population and resource environment of Gansu Province.更多还原