【摘要】 通过分析温泉气象站的气候资料与博尔塔拉河流域3个采点的树轮灰度参数相关关系发现,树轮的最大灰度参数与降水相关性较高,最高单相关系数达0.502。并利用该灰度参数构建方程,重建了近百年来温泉气象站冬春季(1~5月)的降水序列,并通过检验证明该方程是稳定可靠的。由此说明,利用树轮灰度参数重建历史时期气候变化具有可行性。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper discusses the possibility of using tree-ring image analysis in researching the paleoclimate change in the Bortala River Basin with the tree-ring samples of Picea schrenkiana collected from 3 sampling sites in the river basin,and analyzes the correlation between the climatic data from Wenquan Meteorological Station and the grey shade chronologies of tree-ring samples from 3 sampling sites in the Bortala River Basin.The results reveal that the correlation between the maximum gray shade parameter of tree-ring and the precipitation is significant,and the highest single-correlation coefficient is as high as 0.502. A 100-year series of precipitation in the Bortala River Basin in winter and spring(from January to May) is developed using the developed equations based on the available meteorological data from Wenquan Meteorological Station,and the statistical test reveals that the developed equations are reliable.Moreover,the study results reveal that there were the 11-year,12-year,22-year and 23-year quasi-periodicities in the change of precipitation during the period from January to May in recent 100 years,and there was no significant abrupt change of precipitation.Especially,the values of precipitation calculated with the developed equations and that derived from the tree-ring grey shade chronologies are similar,which reveals that the developed equations can be used in researching paleoclimate change.更多还原