【摘要】 我国未来到底需要多少吨钢材,以及钢材需求饱和值为多少,一直是国内外非常关心的问题。本文综合分析了影响我国钢材需求的各种因素,找出了主要影响因素并构造了计量经济模型,该模型很好地解释了20多年来我国钢材消费量变动的历史,并对2020年前钢材需求进行了合理预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 Forecast of China’s demand of steel products in the future and the maximum vale of annual demand are the highly concerned issues in the world.Factors influencing the demand of steel products are comprehensively analyzed with key factors discovered in this paper.An econometric forecast model is presented,and the model well explains the fluctuations of steel consumption in China in the past 20 years and provides reasonable forecast of steel demand up to 2020.更多还原