【摘要】 以北京市第三次居民出行调查数据为基础,在考虑影响接驳方式选择的个人、家庭社会经济属性的基础上,构建城市轨道交通接驳方式选择模型。利用模型估计得到参数,通过计算事件发生比,分析变量对接驳方式选择的影响程度。用一个案例,阐述接驳方式选择模型的运用,结果表明:接驳方式选择模型适用于研究个体的出行决策,预测正确率达到70.5%。轨道交通接驳方式研究在实践中的应用,对提高城市轨道交通吸引能力和扩大其影响范围有重要作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the data of the Third Survey on the Travel Behavior of Beijing Residents,this paper constructs a model of mode choice for access to urban rail transit and indicates how to estimate the parameters of the model.This model takes into account the social and economic status of individuals and their families that influence their choice of access modes.By calculating the ratio of event occurrence,all of those parameters are used to analyze the influence degree of the variables on the choice of access modes.This paper further demonstrates the validity of this model in the prediction of access mode choice with an example.Results indicate that the access mode choice model is fit for studying the trip decision of individuals and that the validity of prediction reaches 70.5 per cent.In the end,the paper indicates that studying the access mode to urban rail transit is crucial for urban rail transit to enhance its attraction ability and expand its extent of influence.更多还原