【摘要】 城市群客流生成预测是城市群轨道交通规划中客流预测的主要组成部分,其预测精度将直接影响轨道交通客流预测精度,进而影响轨道交通规划的合理性。在分析城市群客流生成特点的基础上,提出客流生成阶段预测精度控制分为小区划分精度控制、预测方法选择、建模精度控制及模型计算结果调整4个阶段的思路;详细论述后2个阶段的精度控制内容,在模型计算结果调整中提出区域对外交通调整、空间调整、发生总量平衡调整及发生吸引平衡调整4个调整内容,并建立调整模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to enhance the accuracy of the travel demand forecasting for the urban agglomeration, this article studied the accuracy control of its passenger flow generation forecast. On the basis of analyzing the passenger flow generation characteristics of the urban agglomeration, the accuracy control of the forecast is divided into four stages: the accuracy control of region division, the choice of forecast method, the modeling accuracy control and the adjustments of computed results. Meanwhile, the last two stages’ accuracy control contents are discussed in detail. Regional external transport adjustment, space modification, total passenger generation equilibrium adjustment and trip attraction equilibrium adjustment were proposed in the model-computed results, with the adjustment model established.更多还原