【摘要】 首先剖析城市化过程PRED演变的“五律协同”原理和PRED演变轨迹的数学概念模型,在此基础上提出海湾地区城市化过程PRED演变的“六位一体”宏观调控模型及其指标体系和灰度评估模型;然后从规划的角度设计海湾地区“六位一体”的调控方案框架,通过“六位一体”指标的评估和调控,确保海湾地区PRED遵循“五律协同”原理有序协调地演进;最后以厦门海湾为例。厦门城市已进入较高级的发展阶段,第一产业已基本为第二、第三产业所替代,海湾资源的开发利用相当密集,湾内有中华白海豚、文昌鱼等海洋珍稀物种,还有以红树林为代表的海洋生态湿地;经分析评估,其城市化过程PRED演变“六位一体”的灰度值为75.725;保持PRED协调演进应加强调控的主要方面是:保护重要的生态源和海陆之间的生态廊道、防止深水港口岸段和航道的淤积、“控源导流”缩减陆源污染、塑造海湾特色景观和岛链景观、保持港口航运业和滨海旅游业的主导作用并选择性地发展临海工业和海洋新兴产业等。更多还原

【Abstract】 Population, resource, environment and development (PRED) is a focus question of human-earth relationship and an everlasting subject of geographic research. The theory of synergism of five rules in PRED and conceptual mathematical model of PRED evolution trajectory were analyzed, then the controlling macro-model of integration of six factors and its grey index assessment system in bay area were proposed whereby. Also the regulation programs for PRED of bay area evolved in a well-ordered way was devised. The synergism of five rules, refers to the coupling of natural rule, social rule, economic rule, environmental rule and technical rule. The integration of six factors means organizing of ecotype, safety, health, landscaping, culture and profit. The reciprocity of synergism of five rules and integration of six factors is interdependent. Take the Xiamen Bay as an example. The city of Xiamen has reached a highly developed stage, whose first industry has nearly been replaced by the secondary and tertiary industries, but oceanic species like Chinese dolphin, lancelet, etc. and mangrove wetland were preserved. The grey assessment result of integration of six factors is 75.725, indicating that main limiting factors of PRED in the Xiamen Bay are artificial coastline, seawater pollution and shipping channel siltation. The focus of PRED regulation should be: protect coastal eco-source, prevent port and shipping channel from silting, curtail pollution from land, improve landscape of coastline and islands, keep the predominance of sea transportation industry and travel industry and expand to new & high-tech oceanic industries. The study shows that the theory of synergism of five rules and integration of six factors brings a general idea and oriental guide for PRED in bay area, and planning foreseeingly on resource utilization and environmental protection is an exercisable controlling means. Based on the continually comparison and adjustment of six factors among several representative bays, each factor of PRED will keep in a well-ordered way, the conceptual mathematical curve of PRED evolution trajectory will keep ascending, and the distinction of PRED of each bay will be revealed.更多还原