【摘要】 针对开放的通信系统脆性风险问题,采用Delphi法辨识系统的脆性风险因子,建立了基于最大熵法的通信系统脆性风险分析模型,根据已求得的系统脆性指标最小偏见的概率分布函数,对通信系统进行脆性风险分析与评价。通过通信网络实例,对随机任意一天的某一具体通信网络脆性过程进行分析,得到系统的脆性风险特性,找到影响通信系统崩溃的主要脆性因子,与实际情况比较,说明该方法是可行、实用的。结果表明,如果采取相关措施对其主要的脆性因子进行控制,可以有效地防止通信系统的崩溃,降低通信系统的脆性,且有益于指导通信系统的体系结构的设计。更多还原

【Abstract】 Aiming at brittleness risk of communication system,set up a brittleness risk analysis model of communication system based on the maximum entropy principle,in accordance with the brittleness risk factors in Delphi method.Brittleness risk analysis and estimating of a communication system is done through the probability distribution function of minimum prejudice which have distinguished main brittleness factors.Using the example of a communication net,the brittleness course of the communication net is analyzed and primary brittleness factors are identified.Analysis shows that the method is both feasible and practical.The results show that the method appears to be effective for controlling the collapse of a communication system and beneficial to guide the structure of communication system.更多还原