【摘要】 实行地面沉降控制和地下水资源的统一管理,是天津市地面沉降防治工作的特色。本文针对地下水超采是影响天津市地面沉降主要因素的现状,通过对多年地面沉降监测以及地下水资源开发利用数据的分析,首先在全市范围内初步确定各乡镇2007年地下水开采指标或维持2005年实际开采水平,或选用一元回归分析方法建立地面沉降预测模型。在建模过程中,应用地质系统科学理论,综合考虑2001～2005年各年度地面沉降和地下水水位动态,将天津市划分为若干个子系统,每一子系统作为一个回归分析单元。为了将各计算单元的预测结果具体到各乡镇地下水资源开采指标制定中,结合各乡镇地面沉降现状和地下水替换水源条件,并根据计算单元内各乡镇地下水开采强度、地下水超采程度、沉降敏感度以及地下水位超限程度等因素进行压采规模的综合分级。这一方法已得到我市相关水资源管理部门的认同,并取得了较好的实践效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 The land subsidence control in Tianjin is characterized by a concerted management of land subsidence and groundwater resources.This paper,in view of the fact that over-exploitation of groundwa- ter has been the main factor affecting the land subsidence in Tianjin and based on analyses of the monitor- ing data of land subsidence and groundwater exploitation,attempts to determine the quota of groundwater exploitation for the various townships in Tianjin in 2007,either maintaining the level in 2005 or setting up a prediction model for land subsidence using the unary regression analysis method.In the modeling process,with the application of the geological scientific theory and taking consideration of the annual land subsidence and groundwater dynamics during 2001～2005,Tianjin City is divided into a number of subsystems,each as a unit for unary regression analysis.And then,to apply the prediction data into the quota of groundwater exploitation for each township,a comprehensive classification is made for the exploitation,with considerations of the situations of land subsidence and groundwater replacement by surface water,the intensity of groundwater exploitation,the sensitivity of land subsidence development, the degree of groundwater over-exploitation and groundwater table and so on.This method has been recognized by the related administrative organizations of water resources,and proved to be effective in practice.更多还原