【摘要】 据黄浦江吴淞、黄浦江公园站的近百年潮位资料和17～18世纪上海地区历史文献考证资料,得出上海严重风暴潮具有60±2 a的准周期性。从而应用它的周期规律,提出在2007～2011年可能为上海严重风暴潮的防范期;经收集防范期内的相关信息,采用可公度性法预测,其中2007±1年或2010年±1年上海可能发生严重风暴潮,以供防汛减灾参考。但对上海风暴潮60 a周期的宏观背景,物理原因等未能深入,有待科研、气象部门关注研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the tide materials of the last hundred years in Huangpu River Wusong Station and Huangpu River Park Station and the researched historical documents of the seventeenth century - the eighteenth century in Shanghai region, it is given that the serious windstorm tide in Shanghai has 60 (2 a quasi-periodicity. Therefore, applying its periodical law, the article puts forward that the years from 2007 to 2011 maybe become the precaution period against the serious windstorm tide in Shanghai. After collecting the relative information within the precaution period, the commensurability method is used to forecast that the serious windstorm tide maybe happen in Shanghai in 2007 ( 1 or in 2010 ( 1, which can be referred for the flood control and the disaster reduction. The article has not deepened the macro-background and physical reasons of the windstorm tide 60 a period in Shanghai, which is to research by the scientific research departments and meteorological departments.更多还原