【摘要】 本文论证了汇率的可行波动区间是由经济因素、国际政治经济博弈共同决定的;提出了大国之间在汇率问题上的博弈,只是大国经济关系再调整的一个反映,并据此得出了各方在人民币汇率问题上的博弈具有长期性的结论;本文指出,汇率的可行波动区间应选取在公共区间的右侧,以期实现国内经济、国际收支、国际政治经济博弈的三重均衡;在总结日本与德国经验教训的基础上,提出在货币升值的过程中,应采取适度从紧的财政政策与货币政策,避免短期内的大幅升值,维持较高的实际利率,防范不动产资产对于银行存款的过度替代,防止出现严重的不动产泡沫。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper shows that the fluctuating range of foreign exchange rate is jointly determined by economic factors and the game of international politics and economics, it illustrates that the game behavior of large countries in foreign exchange rate reflects the readjustment of economic relation among large countries, which implies that the game behavior of relative parties in RMB exchange rates will last for a long time. The paper points out that acceptable fluctuating range of exchange rate should be targeted in the right side of public range so as to realize the triple equilibrium of domestic economy, payment of balance and international game in politics and economics. By summarizing the experiences and lessons from Germany and Japan, this paper suggests that, in the process of RMB appreciation, moderately tight fiscal and money policies should be adopted so as to avoid large scale appreciation in a short time, and moderately high real deposit rate should be maintained to protect bank deposit from excessive real estate investment and to avoid severe real estate bubble.更多还原