【摘要】 近几年来,基于我国持续的贸易顺差和高速增长的外汇储备,人民币汇率呈加速上升态势。本文通过具体分析我国贸易顺差持续扩大的根本原因后指出:中国的贸易顺差中隐藏着伪装成贸易的巨额资本流入,如果人民币大幅升值,将对我国经济造成灾难性打击。适当放宽长期资本流动,严格限制短期资本流动,降低出口退税率,激活我国国内B股市场和提高境内美元存款利率等,应是预防人民币过度升值的有效措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Over the past few years,with China’s continuous trade surplus and high speed growth of foreign exchange reserve,renminbi exchange rate speeds up its appreciation.The paper analyzes the fundamental reasons of increasing traded surplus and then points out that there are great capital inflows in the disguise of trade.The large appreciation of renminbi will lead to disastrous consequences on Chinese economy.Effective measures to prevent renminbi from excessive appreciation include moderately relaxing the long term capital flow;strictly limiting short term capital flow;reducing exporting tax rebate rate; promoting b share market in China and increasing domestic deposit interest rate of US dollar.更多还原