【摘要】 根据北京市自然环境、污染气象特征、大气环境过程及区域污染源分布等信息,建立了用于大气环境质量预测的多维多箱与高斯模型结合的复合模型,结合大气环境质量标准计算了不同达标率下北京市的大气PM10环境容量。研究结果表明,复合模型综合考虑了各类影响因素,预测大气环境质量时产生的相对误差较小,能有效地应用于城市大气环境容量计算。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper aims to report its authors’ new approach to testing the atmospheric environment and the testing of the local pollutant sources distribution in Beijing Municipality area by applying a newly developed composite simulation model. As a matter of fact, the so-called multi-dimensional multi-box model is an innovation brought forward by Beijing University of Technology and Regina University (Canada). The model is designated for studying the physical and chemical pollutant removing mechanism, testing of vertical and horizontal diffusion of the air pollutants and the changes of weather conditions in a 24-hour and all-weather basis. The model can also be used to forecast the weather and atmospheric quality in different cities, particularly designated for simulating PM_ 10 pollutant concentrations in Beijing. To establish a multi-dimensional multi-box model, we have divided the whole city into 38 sub-boxes according to the geographical locations and into 3 strata vertically according to the atmospheric spaces. Then, the model can further be divided into 114 sub-boxes, including the upper strata, and quality-balance equation groups to be measured in four directions(N, S, E and W), respectively. Gauss model is adopted also to forecast the air pollutant diffusion from all the main point sources. Comparing all the related study results with the indications in the international popular model-3, we have found that the expected pollutant distribution concentrations as well as the atmospheric environment capacity indicators gained from the composite model and multi-dimensional model are very much similar. The so-called atmospheric environmental capacity here mentioned is referred to as the optimal amount of the atmospheric emission if it can meet the state atmospheric environment quality standard at some areas and in some phases. Based on the forecasting of the atmospheric pollutant concentration, we have evaluated the atmospheric environmental capacity in Beijing which is indeed below the state atmospheric environment quality standard, and the atmospheric PM_ 10 capacities of different standard areas are retrieved. Compared with the ground monitoring data,it can be found that the evaluation results are reliable. Hence, the models illustrated above are expected to be effectively used to simulate China’s atmospheric environmental capacity.更多还原