【摘要】 基于1951~2003年的地面气候资料,应用分形理论的R/S方法对南充近50年来平均气温、极端气温、降水量和日照时数进行了分析。结果表明,南充年平均气温呈下降趋势,且具有较强的持续性,具体表现为秋冬升、春夏降的季节性差异;极端最低气温和极端最高气温均呈升高趋势,且极端最低气温比极端最高气温明显,但持续性都不强;降水量略呈下降趋势,但波动大、趋势不甚明显;日照时数除秋季外,其他季节减少趋势非常明显,年日照时数减少趋势显著,趋势性非常强,表明未来相当长一段时期内仍将继续呈减少趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the climate data in 1951～2003 the R/S method of the fractal theory was used to analyze the yearly average and extreme temperature,precipitation including and sunshine duration in Nanchong area since recent 50 years.Results indicated the yearly average temperature was falling in Nanchong area and the falling trend had a considerable persistence.The air temperature was falling during spring and summer and rising during autumn and winter.The extreme maximum and minimum temperatures were both rising and the later was more obvious.But both two temperatures were not persistent.Precipitation was falling with big fluctuate and unobvious trend.Seasonal sunlight time except autumn had obvious trend falling.The annual sunlight times was also falling and had a considerable persistence.更多还原