【摘要】 本文首先回顾2005年我国对外贸易形势并分析2006年国内外宏观经济环境,在此基础上,运用协整分析方法和误差校正模型及非线性BP神经元算法,采用进口、出口、外汇储备、汇率等数据建立经济计量模型,对2006年我国进出口进行预测。主要预测结果为:2006年,我国进出口贸易将继续保持快速增长势头,进口增长速度将高于出口增长速度;全年贸易将可能继续呈现大额顺差的态势,但会有所缓解。然而,2006年我国对外贸易中也存在着一些值得关注的问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 Coupled with looking back on China′s foreign trade in 2005, this paper investigates the domestic and world situation of macro-economy. Against this backdrop, China′s foreign trade in 2006 will be forecasted by using co-integration, error correction model and nonlinear back-propagation neural network. Our empirical results show that the stable increasing growth may go on for China′s foreign trade; the increase rate of import will exceed that of export, which will result in the smoothed total trade surplus. However, some issues in China′s foreign trade in 2006 are worth our noticing.更多还原