【摘要】 研究目的:以湖南省湘潭市城市地价动态监测体系为基础和平台,探讨城市地价预测方法。研究方法:GM(1,1)模型、贝叶斯方法及先行指标法。研究结果:(1)GM(1,1)模型对湘潭市区地价水平的历史趋势拟合程度高,预测结果符合湘潭市社会经济及土地市场变化规律;(2)转折点预测的结论是湘潭市城市地价水平将继续上行,短期内不会改变方向。研究结论:通过编制城市地价指数,采用GM(1,1)灰色模型、贝叶斯方法及先行指标等对市场地价水平及其波动转折点进行预测分析,是一条较科学的技术途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 The purpose of this study is to explore a prediction-model of urban land price based on the monitoring system of Xiangtan urban land price.Methods of GM(1,1) gray prediction,Bayesian and antecedence index were employed.The simulated results matches with the historic data of urban land price in Xiangtan,and the predicted results accord with social economic development and land market.It is predicted the urban land price will be going up,and will not change in short time.The GM(1,1) gray prediction,Bayesian and antecedence index are useful tools to predict urban land price and the turning point of fluctuation.更多还原