【摘要】 分析气候变暖对黄土高原塬区作物发育期的影响表明:气候变暖使冬小麦越冬前各发育期日期推后,越冬后各发育期日期提前;冬小麦全生育期生长天数缩短,每10年缩短8.3天,主要是越冬期(休眠期)缩短,每10年缩短6.8天;冬小麦越冬死亡率降低。使玉米各发育期日期提前,但播种期、三叶期、拔节期、抽雄期日期提前较小,其变化速率仅为0.5天~1.1天/10年;而乳熟期、成熟期日期提前较多,变化速率为3.5天~9.0天/10年。冬小麦、玉米气候产量变化与干旱发生程度有关,干旱越严重,气候产量越低。年气候生产力40年(1961年~2000年)呈递减趋势,递减率为1.13kg~19.21kg/(hm2.年),从对未来假定的气候变化年型看,以暖湿型气候年型对农业生产最为有利,年气候生产力增加13.7%~31.2%;冷干型气候对农业生产不利,年气候生产力减少5.1%~27.1%。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the phonological observation data of winter wheat in 1981～2004 and corn in 1991～2005,the impact of climate warming on growth period of crops had been analyzed at Dunzhi plateau.The results showed that for winter wheat the growth period before overwintering was suspended about 1.2～3.6d/10a,growth period after overwintring was advanced by 4.2～6.9d/10a,and the entire growth period of winter wheat was shorted by 8.3d/10a of which overwintering period 6.8d/10a,the overwintering mortality was reduced by 2.4%/10a and the ensuring rate of overwintering was risen.As for corn the date of the entire growth period was advanced in which the period of sowing,three leaves,jointing and heading advanced with a ration of 0.5d～1.1d/10a,and 3.5d～9.0d/10a for the period of milky maturity and ripe.The climatic yield of winter and corn changed with the arid degree,the more serious the drought,the lower the climatic yield.As frequency of drought in the 1990s’is higher and it’s intensity is stronger than that in the 1980s’,variation range of winter wheat climatic yield in the 1990s’ is larger than 1980s’. Based on metrological data of Zhenni Weather Station located at Gonghe Plateau, Nixian Weather Station located at Zaosheng Plateau and Xifeng benchmark climate station located at Dongzhi Plateau,the climatic productivity had been analyzed with the model of Thornthwaite Memoriae.The results showed that climatic productivity reduced year on year with ration of 1.13kg～19.21kg/hm~2.a.The climatic productivity changed with mean annual temperature and annual precipitation,i.e.,the amount of climatic productivity increase depended on the factor of precipitation.It was also proved that variation of climatic productivity was dominated mainly by precipitation for that the warm-wet was availed to crop growth with climatic productivity increased by 13.7%～31.2% with range of variation of-0.9%～13.9% while the dry-cold climate was unsuitable for crop growth with climatic productivity decreased by 5.1%～27.1%,and with a range of variation about-21.7%～4.3%.更多还原