【摘要】 以典型农牧交错带巴林左旗为例,以历年减产率指标、减产率变异系数指标、风险指数指标和综合风险指标等为评估标准,分析了评估巴林左旗粮豆单产的风险分布规律。结果表明,多数灾年的减产率在45%以下,从而得出一般性减产年份较多,而重灾或绝收年份较少的结论。根据气候相似性原理,结合小网格资源推算的方法,利用G IS技术,进行了粮豆种植的风险评估与区划,指出该地区风险分布具有北部高、南部低的连片性分布特点。同时对影响粮豆产量波动的风险成因进行了评估,得出南北部气候条件的差异和气象灾害的频繁发生是引起该地区粮豆产量波动的主要因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 Taking the typically agricultural and pastoral transition region—Balinzuo Banner as an example and the indices such as the output reduction rate in the past years,the variation coefficient,the risk index and the synthetic risk index as evaluation criteria,this paper analyses the risk distribution law of grain crops yield in Balinzuo Banner.The results show that the output reduction rate in the most part of the past years was under forty-five percent.Furthermore,the paper puts forward the conclusion that the more slight damage appears and the less heavy damage occurs.Based on the climate similarity theory and the method of small grid resources calculation,using GIS technique,this paper carries on risk evaluation and zoning of grain crops output,and points out the distribution characteristics with higher risk in the north and lower risk in the south.At the same time,it analyses the factors that affect the output fluctuation of grain crops,and it is shown that difference of climatic condition betweer the north and the south and the frequent occurrence of meteorological disasters are the main factors that cause the output fluctuation of grain crops in this area.更多还原