【摘要】 以山东区域农业生产作为案例,根据主要作物历年产量波动分析,发现趋势产量年际间变化较为平稳,而气象产量年际间变化幅度较大,说明山东农业生产存在着气候脆弱性。通过对比分析光、温生产潜力和光、温、水生产潜力及气象因子对产量的直接、间接通径系数,得出气象产量主要受降水因素的制约,水分是气候资源组合中的薄弱环节,也是山东农业的主要限制因素。历年作物生长期内降水达不到需水要求的概率为20%~35%。各作物不同生育时段的受旱概率相差较大,最低为7%,高的达50%~85%,这些结果为区域农业生产的减灾防灾提供了依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper takes regional agriculture in Shandong as an example.Based on the analysis of crop yield fluctuation,it is found that the trend yield is more stable but the meteorological yield fluctuates,therefore the agriculture production is frangible in Shandong Province.Making a comparison between production potentiality of light and temperature and production potentiality of light,temperature and precipitation and direct and indirect path coefficient of meteorological factors to yield,the result is that the crop yield is mainly restricted by precipitation condition.Precipitation is also the limiting condition of agriculture in Shandong region.The probability that the precipitation don’t met the crop need is 20%～35% in total growth stage.The probability of precipitation deficiency shows a larger difference in different growth stage of crop with the highest 50%~80% and the lowest 7%.更多还原