【摘要】 【目的】为实现对高致病性禽流感发生的风险评估,以在该病的控制中为制定科学有效的控制策略提供理论依据。【方法】通过对已发生的高致病性禽流感相关数据的统计分析,结合头脑风暴法,确定了高致病性禽流感发生的风险因素;利用层次分析法确定各风险因素的权重;应用多指标综合评价法计算评估结果。【结果】建立了由评估指标体系、风险因素量化评价标准、指标权重、综合评分方法组成的高致病性禽流感发生风险评估框架。【结论】利用该风险评估框架可进行风险因素的综合分析,实现对中国高致病性禽流感疫情发生风险的定量评估。更多还原

【Abstract】 【Objective】The purpose of this paper is to establish a risk assessment framework that can evaluate the highly pathogenic avian influenza risks in China.【Method】A risk assessment framework was built.In the process,the risk factors were confirmed by analyzing the epidemic data.An analytic hierarchy process was designed to weigh risk factors,and an integrated assessment method was applied to evaluate the results of the risk.【Result】 The completed framework includes the risk factor system,data standards for risk factors,measures of risk factors and integrated assessment methods.【Conclusion】Use of this risk assessment framework performs a quantitative analysis of the highly pathogenic avian influenza risks in China更多还原