【摘要】 【目的】通过历史分析,揭示已发生的气候变化对长江中下游水稻生产的影响,为适应气候变化背景下不断增加的高温危害提供依据。【方法】应用1981～2003年长江中下游的湖北、湖南、安徽、江西、江苏和浙江的48个早稻和30个中稻站点的水稻常规观测及同期的气象观测数据,利用SAS软件建立水稻开花期、乳熟前期和乳熟后期平均最高气温和日降水量与空壳率、秕谷率和千粒重的统计回归关系,分析水稻各生育期气象要素对水稻生产的影响。【结果】早稻的空壳率随着各个生育期平均最高气温的升高而减小,随着平均日降水量的增加而增大;中稻空壳率与开花期的气象要素关系明显,它随着开花期的平均日降水量和平均最高气温的升高而升高;早、中稻秕谷率都随着乳熟后期平均日降水量的增加而增大,随着平均最高气温的升高而减小;早稻千粒重与乳熟前期和乳熟后期的平均最高气温呈正相关,与乳熟前期和乳熟后期的平均日降水量呈负相关。中稻千粒重与乳熟后期的日降水量呈负相关,与乳熟后期的平均最高气温呈正相关。【结论】对早稻产生负面影响的是整个生殖生长期的过量降水,对中稻产生负面影响的是开花期和乳熟后期的持续高温或阴雨天气。与全球变暖相应的长江中下游高温危害主要影响的是中稻,对早稻影响较小。更多还原

【Abstract】 【Objective】 The purpose of this study is to reveal the effects of historic climate change on rice yield over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and to better adapt to climate change in the future.【Method】This study presents the relation of temperature and precipitation and rice components from 1981-2003 at 48 early rice stations and 30 middle rice stations. It focuses on an analysis of three stages-flowering, pre-milk and late milk.【Result】The results show that mean maximum temperature and mean daily precipitation at the stages of flowering and pre-milk are most related to early rice yield. And yield change of middle rice is mainly due to mean precipitation change at the flowering stage. Furthermore, percentage of undeveloped grain increases as mean maximum rises at the flowering stage.【Conclusion】Over precipitation in the reproductive stage is a major reason to reduce yield of early rice. Consecutive rainfall and continuous high temperature can have negative effects on middle rice yield. Global warming would affect middle rice more seriously than early rice.更多还原