【摘要】 文章采用“无锡市2002~2004年孕产妇回顾性调查”数据,尝试使用三层贝努里模型分析方法研究出生人口质量的主要影响因素,设计包括个人、家庭经济类型和区域环境三层模型,将影响无锡市出生人口质量的各层因素纳入三层贝努里模型进行综合分析,结果发现该模型数据的分层效应的确会对该市产妇生育结局产生显著影响;个人、家庭经济类型和社区区域环境的三层分层架构可以解释产妇生育结局存在差异的原因;在三层模型构架下,无锡市产妇出现出生人口质量问题的整体风险概率在(1.658134%,15.4497524%)间浮动;出生人口质量主要受家族遗传因素、污染源及危险因素接触和家庭经济因素的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper applies the data from a recent survey conducted by PKUIPR, “the retrospective survey of maternity women of Wuxi 2002-2004”, and attempts to utilize three level Beroulli HLM model to analyze the primary factors influencing the quality of new-born population. The author designs a special three level HLM model including individual, the type of family economic condition and regional environment, which can comprehensively analyze various factors and parameters at different levels. The analysis results show us the following conclusions: first, the hierarchical structure indeed brings about apparent influence upon the pregnant results of Wuxi’s bearing women; second, the three level structure including individual, the family economical type and regional environmental condition can effectively explain the difference among these respondent pregnant women; third, the perspective of three level HLM model indicates the whole risk probability of the pregnant women in Wuxi is from 1.658% to 15.450%; and finally, the quality of new-born population is mainly determined by the Genetic factor from family, pollution and hazard experience and family economical conditions.更多还原