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灰色预测模型在油气操作成本预测中的应用
APPLICATION OF GREY FORECAST MODEL IN DEVELOPMENT COST PREDICTION OF OIL/GAS FIELD
【摘要】 油气操作成本是油气田生产消耗的主要项目,为了有效地控制油气操作成本,必须制定准确的油气操作成本计划。而油气操作成本在我国是最近几年才提出来的,数据项比较少,给油气操作成本预测带来一定的难度。为此,文章根据灰色预测的基本原理,采用灰色系统理论进行油气操作成本预测,就可以弥补对预测所需的数据少,而且也无须剔除不可比因素,只要所建模型能满足精度要求,预测结果就可以信赖。
【Abstract】 The operation cost of oil/gas field is main item in production. For controlling availably the operation cost of oil/gas field, the accurate oil /gas operation cost plan must be established. But the oil /gas operation cost is just put forward in China in resent years, the data item is less, the predicting to oil/gas operation cost bring certain difficulty. So, based on the basic principle of grey prediction, the prediction of oil /gas operation cost is carried out, and the grey forecast model is established. The accuracy of the model can meet the requirement of cost prediction, its forecast result is exact.
【Key words】 grey theory; forecast model; data handling; accuracy check;
- 【文献出处】 钻采工艺 ,Drilling & Production Technology , 编辑部邮箱 ,2006年05期
- 【分类号】TE322
- 【被引频次】22
- 【下载频次】227