【摘要】 目前地震活动性分析有许多指标参量,各参量在不同时段变化各异,预报效果不理想。由于各参量之间通常具有一定的相关性,本文选择地震频次N(ML≥3.0)、b值、η值、A(b)值、Mf值、Ac值、C值和D值8个参量进行因子分析,得到的反映地震活动时、空、强异常特征的综合指标Wfa。结果表明Wfa在2005年江西九江5.7级地震和华北14次5.7级以上地震前出现明显的异常变化,可以较好地反映地震活动时、空、强异常特征。还对因子分析的有关问题进行了讨论。更多还原

【Abstract】 There are many parameters in analysis of seismicity.The variations of those parameters are different in different period of seismic process,and the earthquake forecast results of the parameters are not well.For existing some correlations among those parameters,8 parameter,such as N(M_L≥3.0),b-value,η-value,A(b)-value,M_f-value,Ac-value,C-value and D-value are selected for factor analysis method,and an synthetic parameter W_fa,that reflects the temporal,spatial and intensity characteristics of seismicity,is made.The result shows that W_fa had obvious anomalous change before Jiujiang M_S5.7 earthquake in 2005,Jiangxi Province,and 14 M_S≥5.7 earthquake events in North China,can reflect the anomalous variation in temporal,spatial and intensity characteristics of seismicity well.Some problems in the factor analysis method are discussed also.更多还原